Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting

Real-Time Anomaly Detection in Distributed Financial Transaction Streams Using Machine Learning: From Statistical Detection to Operational Reliability

John Kwesi Erbynn — 2026-09-29

Financial transaction monitoring is increasingly expected to identify anomalous and potentially fraudulent activity while transactions are still operationally actionable. This requirement is more demanding than conventional offline classification because the detector is embedded in an unbounded, distributed stream in which class prevalence is extreme, labels are delayed or selectively verified, behaviour changes over time, and feature state may be distributed across machines. This critical narrative review synthesises evidence on machine-learning methods, data-stream adaptation, distributed stream processing, operational evaluation, privacy, explainability and adversarial reliability. Literature published from 1 January 2000 to 19 July 2026 was considered, with emphasis on peer-reviewed studies that illuminate realistic transaction-stream conditions. The evidence indicates that effective real-time detection depends less on a single algorithmic family than on alignment among behavioural representation, temporal validation, adaptive learning, stateful stream semantics, decision thresholds and investigation capacity. Supervised tree and ensemble approaches remain strong operational baselines when labels and engineered behavioural features are available; sequential, unsupervised and graph-based methods add value when temporal or relational context is material, but their deployment benefits are often less well established than benchmark gains. Concept drift and verification latency create a persistent mismatch between current transactions and historical labels, while distributed execution introduces correctness risks through late events, replay, stale features and recovery. Accuracy-centred evaluation is therefore inadequate: precision-recall behaviour, calibration, cost, alert capacity, end-to-end latency, throughput and recovery characteristics should be assessed together under temporal replay. Privacy-preserving collaboration and explainability can support governance, but neither federated learning nor post-hoc explanation resolves the underlying problems of heterogeneity, security and decision accountability. The review concludes that the main research priority is integrated statistical-systems evaluation using realistic, replayable streams with delayed feedback and explicit service-level constraints. Such evaluation would make apparent whether an apparent modelling improvement survives the conditions that determine operational value.

Strengthening Financial Integrity in U.S. Public Health Systems: The Mediating Role of Governance and Organizational Readiness in Analytics- and Machine Learning-Enabled Audit Optimization

Emmanuel Okyem Afriyie — 2026-09-29

U.S. public health financing systems, particularly Medicare and Medicaid, continue to face substantial improper-payment and fraud risks. Analytics and machine learning offer expanded detection coverage, more focused investigative targeting, and opportunities for earlier intervention. Evidence from technical studies and operational program-integrity initiatives demonstrates meaningful gains in detection and targeting, but the translation of those gains into durable financial-integrity outcomes is conditional rather than automatic. Drawing on a validated reference base of 28 sources spanning peer-reviewed research, federal oversight documents, operational reports, and selected practice frameworks, this state-of-the-art critical review maps the evolution of audit paradigms and develops governance capability and organisational readiness as two interdependent conceptual mediating mechanisms. Governance shapes whether algorithmic systems are embedded in accountable control environments and subjected to meaningful oversight. Organisational readiness, encompassing data quality, workforce skills, leadership commitment, infrastructure, and organisational maturity, determines whether agencies can absorb, interpret, and act on advanced tools. The review advances the Governance-Readiness Mediated Model of Intelligent Audit Optimisation (GRM-IAO). The framework proposes that analytics and machine learning contribute to audit optimisation and financial integrity when technical capability is enabled by adequate readiness and directed by coherent governance. Strengthening financial integrity through intelligent auditing is therefore an institutional and organisational achievement as well as a technological one.

Harnessing Astrotourism for Rural Development in India: A Critical Narrative Review of Evidence, Opportunities and Constraints

Nikhil Kumar — 2026-10-07

Dark night skies are increasingly recognised as a scarce environmental, scientific and cultural resource, and astrotourism, defined here as travel motivated wholly or partly by the observation and interpretation of the night sky and related celestial phenomena, has been promoted as a low-impact route to diversify rural economies. India presents a distinctive case. National assessments of artificial light at night document rapid brightening across much of the country, yet trans-Himalayan and other sparsely populated landscapes retain skies of exceptional quality, and the notification of the Hanle Dark Sky Reserve in Ladakh has given the idea institutional form. This critical narrative review examines whether, and under what conditions, astrotourism can contribute to rural development in India. Peer-reviewed literature and authoritative institutional sources published from January 2000 to 27 July 2026 were identified through multidisciplinary scholarly indexes, a regional thesis repository, institutional websites and citation tracing, and were appraised for design quality, context and relevance. The synthesis is organised around five themes: conceptual definition of astrotourism as a place-based resource; the scarcity, distribution and measurement of dark skies in India; the pathways through which dark sky tourism may generate income, employment and learning; the governance and certification arrangements required to protect the resource; and the environmental, cultural and technological risks that accompany visitation. The evidence indicates strong demand-side interest and plausible economic benefits, but most economic estimates derive from modelling or single-site case studies in high-income countries, and evidence that dark sky designation reduces light emissions is mixed. Indian evidence remains sparse, largely descriptive and concentrated on a small number of sites, with little systematic measurement of sky quality, visitor spending, benefit distribution or ecological effects. The review proposes an evidence-based framework linking sky-quality protection, community-controlled enterprise, product complementarity and adaptive governance, and it distinguishes established relationships from hypothesised ones. Astrotourism is best regarded as a conditional and complementary rural development option rather than a stand-alone solution, and its contribution in India will depend on enforceable lighting governance, equitable benefit-sharing and robust longitudinal monitoring.

Sustainability Reporting Practices in Developing Countries: A Critical Narrative Review of Determinants, Regulation, Credibility and Global Standardisation

Md. Shahriya Mannan — 2026-10-07

Sustainability reporting has spread rapidly beyond the industrialised economies in which it originated, and securities regulators, central banks and stock exchanges across Asia, Africa and Latin America now require or encourage companies to disclose environmental, social and governance information. The expansion of practice has not been matched by an equally clear understanding of what such reporting achieves in developing countries, where state–business relations, ownership concentration, informal institutions, enforcement capacity and exposure to global value chains differ markedly from the settings in which dominant theories were formulated. This critical narrative review examines corporate sustainability reporting practices in developing and emerging economies, with the aim of evaluating the strength and consistency of evidence on why companies report, how regulation alters reporting, how credible the resulting disclosures are, and how the arrival of global baseline standards may reshape local accountability. Peer-reviewed literature and authoritative institutional documents were identified through multidisciplinary scholarly indexes, citation tracking and official regulatory sources, and were appraised for design, contextual sensitivity and analytical robustness. The synthesis indicates that firm size, industry sensitivity, foreign ownership and export exposure are the most consistently supported correlates of reporting, whereas findings on board characteristics and profitability are inconsistent and heavily dependent on measurement choices. Qualitative evidence repeatedly shows that powerful transnational audiences, rather than local communities, shape disclosure agendas, and that silence on labour, human rights and environmental harm persists alongside growth in reporting volume. Quasi-experimental studies of disclosure mandates, principally from China and India, show measurable capital-market and behavioural effects, but these findings coexist with evidence of symbolic compliance, declining voluntary assurance and politically motivated disclosure. Investor-oriented global standards may improve comparability while narrowing the range of impacts that developing-country stakeholders regard as material. Major unresolved questions concern the real-world outcomes of reporting, the credibility of assurance, the position of small and state-owned enterprises, and the local consequences of standard harmonisation. The evidence supports a cautious conclusion: sustainability reporting in developing countries is institutionally embedded and politically mediated, and disclosure growth should not be interpreted as evidence of improved accountability without independent verification of corporate conduct.

The Effect of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), Financial Self-efficacy, and Risk Tolerance on Stock Investment Decisions with Investment Intention as a Mediating Variable

Indra Bashuni Wijaya — 2026-09-24

Purpose: This study aims to examine the effects of Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), Financial Self-Efficacy, and Risk Tolerance on Stock Investment Decision among individual stock investors in Indonesia. Furthermore, this study investigates the mediating role of Investment Intention in explaining the relationships between these psychological factors and stock investment decision-making.

Research Design: This study employed a quantitative research approach using an explanatory research design to examine the causal relationships among the proposed variables.

Research Setting and Duration: The study was conducted among individual stock investors in Indonesia. Data were collected through an online survey during the 2026 research period.

Methodology: Primary data were collected using a structured questionnaire distributed online to Indonesian stock investors who met the predetermined sampling criteria. A purposive sampling technique was employed, resulting in 100 valid respondents. The measurement instruments for Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), Financial Self-Efficacy, Risk Tolerance, Investment Intention, and Stock Investment Decision were adapted from previously validated studies. Data were analysed using SmartPLS 4 based on the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) approach. The analysis included the assessment of the measurement model through indicator reliability, convergent validity, discriminant validity, and internal consistency reliability, followed by structural model evaluation and hypothesis testing using the bootstrapping procedure.

Findings: The results indicate that Fear of Missing Out (FOMO), Financial Self-Efficacy, and Risk Tolerance have positive and significant effects on both Investment Intention and Stock Investment Decision. In addition, Investment Intention has a significant positive effect on Stock Investment Decision and significantly mediates the relationships between Fear of Missing Out, Financial Self-Efficacy, Risk Tolerance, and Stock Investment Decision. The structural model also demonstrates satisfactory explanatory power and predictive capability, indicating that the proposed model effectively explains stock investment decision-making among Indonesian individual investors.

Conclusion: The findings confirm that psychological factors play a crucial role in shaping stock investment decisions. Investors with higher levels of Financial Self-Efficacy, greater Risk Tolerance, and stronger Fear of Missing Out tend to exhibit stronger investment intentions, which subsequently lead to more active stock investment decisions. This study contributes to the behavioural finance literature by integrating these psychological factors within the framework of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and highlights the importance of Investment Intention as a mediating mechanism linking investors' psychological characteristics to actual investment decisions.

Environmental Quality and Health Status in Nigeria: A Quantitative Analysis Using the Load Capacity Factor Approach

R. Santos Alimi — 2026-09-29

Background: Environmental sustainability is increasingly recognised as a critical determinant of public health, particularly in developing nations where ecological degradation and fragile healthcare systems converge.

Objectives: This study investigates the long-run impact of the Load Capacity Factor (LCF)—a composite metric of environmental quality—on population health outcomes in Nigeria.

Methodology: The study analyses the effects of LCF on life expectancy at birth and infant mortality, while controlling for health expenditure, GDP per capita, population size, and renewable energy consumption, using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2024. The empirical framework employs the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimator, which addresses endogeneity and serial correlation in cointegrated series.

Key Findings: Contrary to conventional expectations, our findings reveal that improvements in the Load Capacity Factor are associated with a statistically significant reduction in life expectancy and a significant increase in infant mortality. These counterintuitive results suggest that aggregate environmental gains in Nigeria have not translated into better health outcomes, likely due to persistent structural bottlenecks, including weak healthcare infrastructure, socioeconomic disparities, localised pollution hotspots, and governance deficits. Notably, renewable energy consumption shows a positive and statistically significant association on life expectancy, underscoring the health co-benefits of transitioning to cleaner energy sources.

Policy Implications: The findings underscore the imperative for integrated policy frameworks that simultaneously advance environmental sustainability, healthcare system strengthening, effective environmental governance, renewable energy adoption, and inclusive economic growth. These insights offer actionable evidence for policymakers aiming to achieve Sustainable Development Goals 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and 13 (Climate Action) through coordinated cross-sectoral interventions.

Petroleum Profit Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Empirical Evidence, 2010–2023

Edeh Mark Bekweri — 2026-09-30

Aims: This study examined the contemporaneous relationship between Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT) revenue and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 2010–2023, while accounting for exchange-rate and inflation dynamics.

Study Design: The study adopted an ex post facto annual time-series research design.

Place and Duration of Study: The study covered Nigeria using national annual macroeconomic and petroleum tax data for 2010–2023.

Methodology: Annual data were obtained from the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative and the Central Bank of Nigeria. Fourteen observations were analysed using ordinary least squares regression. Gross domestic product and PPT revenue were log-transformed, while the exchange rate and inflation rate were included as control variables. Diagnostic and sensitivity tests were conducted to assess the reliability of the estimates.

Results: The overall regression model was statistically significant, F(3, 10) = 30.80, p < .001, R² = .90. Petroleum Profit Tax revenue was not a statistically significant predictor of GDP (B = -0.05, p = .706), while the exchange rate was statistically significant (p < .001). Inflation was not statistically significant at the 5% level (p = .091). The real-GDP robustness model similarly showed that PPT revenue remained statistically insignificant (B = -0.032, p = .460).

Conclusion: The findings do not provide evidence of a significant contemporaneous association between PPT revenue and Nigeria’s GDP after controlling for exchange-rate and inflation dynamics. Given the short annual series and associated time-series limitations, the results are best interpreted as exploratory evidence rather than causal or long-run estimates. The findings highlight the importance of considering broader macroeconomic conditions when assessing the growth implications of petroleum tax revenue.

The Influence of Income and Lifestyle on Online Loan Usage Decisions with Financial Literacy as a Moderating Variable among the Millennial Generation in West Java Province

Shusanti — 2026-09-30

Purpose: This study aims to examine the effects of Income and Lifestyle on Online Loan Usage Decisions among the Millennial Generation in West Java Province. Furthermore, this study investigates the moderating role of Financial Literacy in explaining the relationships between Income, Lifestyle, and Online Loan Usage Decision.

Research Design: This study employed a quantitative research approach using an explanatory research design to examine the causal relationships among the proposed variables.

Research Setting and Duration: The study was conducted among the Millennial Generation residing in West Java Province, Indonesia. Data were collected through an online survey during the 2026 research period.

Methodology: Primary data were collected using a structured questionnaire distributed online to Millennials in West Java Province who met the predetermined sampling criteria. A purposive sampling technique was employed, resulting in 100 valid respondents. The measurement instruments for Income, Lifestyle, Financial Literacy, and Online Loan Usage Decision were adapted from established theories and previous empirical studies. Data were analysed using SmartPLS 4 based on the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) approach. The analysis included the assessment of the measurement model through indicator reliability, convergent validity, discriminant validity, and internal consistency reliability, followed by an evaluation of the structural model and hypothesis testing using the bootstrapping procedure.

Findings: The results indicate that Income has a significant negative effect on Online Loan Usage Decision, whereas Lifestyle and Financial Literacy have significant positive effects on Online Loan Usage Decision. Furthermore, Financial Literacy significantly moderates the relationship between Income and Online Loan Usage Decision by strengthening the negative effect of Income and the relationship between Lifestyle and Online Loan Usage Decision by weakening the positive effect of Lifestyle. The structural model also demonstrates satisfactory explanatory power and predictive capability, indicating that the proposed model effectively explains online loan usage decisions among Millennials in West Java Province.

Conclusion: The findings confirm that economic, behavioural, and financial capability factors play important roles in shaping online loan usage decisions. Individuals with higher income tend to be less likely to use online loan services, whereas a more consumption-oriented lifestyle increases the likelihood of using online loans. In addition, higher financial literacy encourages more rational borrowing decisions while strengthening the negative effect of income and weakening the positive effect of lifestyle on online loan usage decisions. This study contributes to the literature on digital financial behaviour by integrating Income, Lifestyle, and Financial Literacy into a single research model and highlights the importance of financial literacy in promoting more responsible and informed online borrowing decisions.

The Influence of Environmental Social Governance and ESG Disclosure on Company Value with Financial Performance as an Intervening Variable

Yuriestyo Tjatur Widodo — 2026-09-30

This study examines the effects of environmental, social, governance, and aggregate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure on financial performance and firm value, and evaluates the intervening role of financial performance among mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2018–2022. A quantitative causative design was applied to a population of 49 mining companies. Purposive sampling yielded 17 companies observed over five years, producing 85 firm-year observations. Financial performance was measured using Return on Assets (ROA), while firm value was represented by Price to Book Value (PBV). Multiple linear regression and path analysis were conducted using IBM SPSS. The results indicate that environmental, social, governance, and aggregate ESG disclosure significantly affect financial performance. The same variables also show significant direct effects on firm value, while financial performance significantly affects firm value. The mediation analysis indicates that financial performance mediates the relationships of environmental and governance disclosure with firm value. In contrast, financial performance does not mediate the relationships of social disclosure or aggregate ESG disclosure with firm value. These findings suggest that the pathways linking ESG-related disclosure to firm value differ across ESG dimensions. For the mining companies examined, stronger ESG transparency is associated with financial performance and market valuation, although the intervening role of financial performance is not uniform across environmental, social, and governance dimensions.

From Devolution to Development: The Role of Fiscal Management Efficiency in Translating Fiscal Decentralization into County Economic Growth in Kenya

Samwel Kipchumba Koskey — 2026-10-01

Fiscal decentralisation has become an important governance reform for promoting local economic development by transferring fiscal responsibilities, resources, and decision-making authority to subnational governments. However, the developmental benefits of decentralisation depend on the efficiency with which devolved resources are managed. This study examined the relationship between fiscal decentralisation and economic growth in Kenya’s county governments, with fiscal management efficiency as a moderating variable. Specifically, the study assessed the effects of revenue assignment, intergovernmental fiscal transfers, and expenditure autonomy on county economic growth and established whether fiscal management efficiency moderated these relationships. The study adopted a positivist research philosophy and an explanatory longitudinal panel research design. The analysis covered all 47 county governments in Kenya over the period from 2013/2014 to 2022/2023, producing 470 county-year observations. Secondary data were obtained from Gross County Product reports, county budget implementation reports, revenue-sharing reports, and audit reports from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA), Controller of Budget, and Office of the Auditor-General. Economic growth was measured using annual changes in Gross County Product, while fiscal decentralisation was operationalised through revenue assignment, intergovernmental fiscal transfers, and expenditure autonomy. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, panel diagnostic tests, random-effects regression, and hierarchical regression analysis. The direct-effects model was statistically significant and explained 50.2% of the overall variation in county economic growth. Revenue assignment had a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth (β = 0.328, p < 0.001), while expenditure autonomy also had a positive and statistically significant effect (β = 0.220, p < 0.001). However, intergovernmental fiscal transfers had a negative but statistically insignificant effect on economic growth (β = −0.021, p = 0.544). Hierarchical regression analysis showed that fiscal management efficiency significantly moderated the relationship between revenue assignment and economic growth (β = 5.165, p < 0.01, ΔR² = 0.083), intergovernmental fiscal transfers and economic growth (β = 4.215, p < 0.01, ΔR² = 0.114), and expenditure autonomy and economic growth (β = 2.413, p < 0.01, ΔR² = 0.073). The final hierarchical model explained approximately 86.1% of the variation in county economic growth. The study concludes that fiscal decentralisation contributes to county economic growth, but its effectiveness depends strongly on fiscal management efficiency. While revenue assignment and expenditure autonomy directly enhance economic performance, intergovernmental transfers alone do not guarantee growth outcomes unless accompanied by effective financial management systems. The study recommends strengthening county own-source revenue mobilisation, improving budget execution, enhancing procurement and audit compliance, and promoting performance-based fiscal governance to maximise the developmental benefits of Kenya’s devolved system.

Impact of Economic Drivers on the Growth of East Africa Partner States: An Analysis of Export Growth, Employment, FDI and Trade Openness

Andrew Kibet — 2026-10-01

Foreign direct investment is similarly positioned in the global growth literature as a potential catalyst for productivity and long-run growth because it can bring capital, managerial know-how, global market linkages, and technology spillovers. Trade openness provides the fourth major channel, reflecting the degree to which an economy is integrated into global markets through imports and exports. Openness can raise growth through competition, technology diffusion via imported intermediates, and access to larger markets, but it can also expose economies to external shocks, premature deindustrialization, and balance-of-payments constraints if import growth outpaces export capacity. This paper empirically investigates the effect of export growth, the unemployment rate, foreign direct investment (FDI), and trade openness on economic growth among East African Partner States. The study uses a balanced panel dataset comprising 75 observations across 25 panel groups and applies a fixed-effects regression model to control for unobserved, time-invariant country characteristics that may jointly influence growth and the explanatory variables. Secondary data were drawn from established international databases, and the final sample included only observations meeting the study’s inclusion criteria to ensure consistency and comparability across variables. The results indicate that export growth has a positive and statistically significant relationship with economic growth, supporting the view that stronger export performance is associated with higher output expansion through productivity and foreign-exchange channels. FDI is also positive and significant, implying that greater capital inflows and potential technology spillovers are associated with improved growth outcomes. Trade openness is negative and significant, suggesting that increased exposure to external trade may be associated with lower growth where openness is not matched by competitiveness, diversification, and resilience to external shocks. Unemployment is positive and significant, implying possible jobless-growth dynamics where output expansion does not translate proportionately into employment absorption. These findings provide policy-relevant insights for East Africa: export upgrading and productivity-oriented FDI should be prioritised, while trade liberalisation should be sequenced alongside industrial and labour-market policies that enhance competitiveness and employment creation. Given the moderate overlap between export growth and trade openness, additional robustness checks using alternative openness indicators or decomposing openness into export and import components would help clarify channels and strengthen policy interpretation.

Financial Knowledge and Investment Decision-making among Small and Medium Enterprises in Rombo District, Tanzania

Proverius Prosper — 2026-10-03

Background: Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in employment creation, income generation and local economic development in Tanzania. Despite growing evidence on financial literacy and SME performance, limited empirical evidence exists on how specific dimensions of financial literacy jointly relate to investment decision-making among SMEs in rural and semi-rural Tanzanian settings.

Aims: This study examined the relationship between financial literacy and investment decision-making among selected small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Rombo District, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania. Specifically, it examined financial knowledge, saving behaviour and budgeting knowledge as dimensions of financial literacy associated with investment decision-making.

Study Design: A convergent parallel mixed-methods approach was used within a cross-sectional research design.

Methodology: The study population comprised 1,950 SME owners and operators. A quantitative sample of 132 respondents was determined using Yamane's formula; 128 completed questionnaires were usable, yielding a 96.9% response rate. Quantitative data were collected through structured questionnaires and analysed using descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression in SPSS Version 31. Semi-structured interviews with purposively selected SME owners and managers were analysed thematically and integrated with the quantitative findings.

Results: Respondents demonstrated moderate to relatively good practical financial literacy. Regular financial record keeping received 66.4% combined agreement, while 65.6% reported being able to analyse financial information before making business decisions. Saving behaviour was less consistent: 47.7% agreed or strongly agreed that they regularly saved part of business income. Budgeting was comparatively strong, with 67.2% reporting that it helped avoid unnecessary spending and 61.0% reporting that it helped allocate resources efficiently. In the fitted regression model, budgeting knowledge (β = .488, t = 7.990, P < .001), financial knowledge (β = .218, t = 4.330, P < .001), saving behaviour (β = .217, t = 3.611, P < .001) and business experience (β = .076, t = 2.932, P = .004) were positively associated with investment decision-making. Age and education were not statistically significant.

Conclusion: Financial knowledge, saving behaviour and budgeting knowledge were positively associated with investment decision-making among the selected SMEs. The findings highlight the importance of practical financial capabilities and business experience. Interpretation should nevertheless be cautious because the principal financial-literacy variables showed substantial multicollinearity and the fitted model used a regression-through-the-origin specification.

Impact of Crime on Economic Performance in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach (1990- 2024)

G. I. Opara — 2026-10-05

Crime and insecurity constitute persistent challenges to economic performance in Nigeria because they can disrupt productive activities, discourage investment, increase security-related expenditure, and weaken business confidence. At the same time, unemployment, inflation, and inadequate capital formation may interact with insecurity to influence overall economic outcomes. Despite growing concern about these relationships, limited evidence simultaneously evaluates the short-run and long-run effects of crime and key macroeconomic variables on Nigeria’s real gross domestic product over an extended period. This study examined the impact of crime on economic performance in Nigeria from 1990 to 2024. The study specifically investigated the effects of crime rate, unemployment rate, gross fixed capital formation, and inflation rate on real gross domestic product (RGDP), which was used as a proxy for economic performance. An ex post facto research design was adopted, and annual secondary data were obtained from relevant national and international statistical sources. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique to establish the short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The unit root test results showed that the variables were integrated at mixed orders of I (0) and I (1), justifying the use of the ARDL approach. The bounds test confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The empirical results showed that the first lag of crime rate had a significant negative effect on economic performance in the short run, suggesting that criminal activity disrupts productive activities, discourages investment, destroys economic assets, and reduces the efficiency of economic resources. For unemployment, the contemporaneous and second-lag coefficients were negative and significant, whereas the first-lag coefficient was positive and significant. However, gross fixed capital formation and inflation exhibited mixed effects across the short and long runs. Crime recorded a positive long-run relationship with economic performance, contrary to conventional theoretical expectations. This unexpected finding may be associated with limitations in crime measurement, increased reporting of criminal activity, institutional factors, or the possibility that recorded crime statistics do not fully capture the economic costs of criminal activity in Nigeria. The study concludes that crime remains an important factor influencing economic performance, particularly in the short run. It therefore recommends stronger crime-prevention institutions, improved employment opportunities, increased productive investment, effective macroeconomic management, and enhanced mechanisms for collecting and reporting crime statistics to promote sustainable economic performance in Nigeria.

Factors Affecting Portfolio Diversification and Investment Return in India

Amar Kumar Chaudhary — 2026-10-05

Portfolio diversification is an important investment strategy for managing risk and improving the balance between risk and return. However, investment decisions are influenced not only by market conditions and asset allocation but also by behavioural factors such as overconfidence, loss aversion, herding behaviour and risk perception. In the Indian investment context, understanding how these factors relate to diversification practices is important for interpreting investment outcomes. This study examines portfolio-diversification and investment-return patterns among individual investors in India and considers behavioural factors identified in the literature, including overconfidence, loss aversion, herding behaviour and risk perception. It uses secondary data from official Indian financial and market sources covering individual and institutional investors, equities, mutual funds, debt and hybrid instruments, household financial assets, stock-market indices and industry sectors. The analysis describes asset-allocation and diversification patterns and considers their relationship with investment performance and market risk. The evidence shows that individual investors accounted for 61.6% of mutual-fund assets under management in November 2025. Annual systematic investment plan contributions increased from ₹1.99 lakh crore in FY2023-24 to ₹2.89 lakh crore in FY2024-25, while SIP assets reached ₹13.35 lakh crore in March 2025. Nifty 50 Total Return performance varied substantially across years, illustrating changing market conditions and the relevance of diversification. Household financial-asset data also indicate allocation across deposits, insurance, provident and pension funds, mutual funds and equities. These patterns suggest that portfolio outcomes are associated with investor participation, asset allocation, market conditions and diversification choices. However, aggregate secondary data do not directly measure individual behavioural biases and do not provide matched investor-level observations for regression or mediation analysis; the study therefore does not establish causal relationships. The findings support a cautious interpretation of diversification as a risk-management approach whose outcomes depend on portfolio construction and market conditions.

Impact of Poverty on Economic Performance in Nigeria: Evidence from a Time Series Data (1990-2024)

A. A Igwemma — 2026-10-05

This study examined the impact of poverty on economic performance in Nigeria over the period 1990–2024. Specifically, the study investigated the effects of the poverty rate, human capital development, measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), the dependency ratio, and gross fixed capital formation on real gross domestic product (RGDP), which was used as a measure of economic performance. An ex-post facto research design was adopted, and annual secondary time-series data covering 35 observations were employed. The study utilised the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to examine both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The unit root test revealed that the variables were integrated at mixed orders of I (0) and I (1), making the ARDL technique appropriate. The results established the existence of a long-run relationship among economic performance, the poverty rate, human capital development, the dependency ratio, and gross fixed capital formation. The long-run estimates revealed that the poverty rate had a negative and statistically significant effect on economic performance, with a coefficient of -0.006617 and a probability value of 0.0006. The Human Development Index exerted a positive and statistically significant effect, with a coefficient of 3.813802 and a probability value of 0.0001, while gross fixed capital formation also had a positive and statistically significant effect, with a coefficient of 0.118717 and a probability value of 0.0001. In contrast, the dependency ratio had a positive but statistically insignificant effect on economic performance, with a probability value of 0.9334. The error correction coefficient of -0.623497 indicates that approximately 62.35 per cent of short-run disequilibrium is corrected annually towards long-run equilibrium. The reported diagnostic tests further indicated that the model was statistically adequate. The study concludes that poverty constitutes a significant constraint on Nigeria's economic performance, while human capital development and productive capital formation are important drivers of long-run economic performance. It therefore recommends stronger poverty-reduction programmes, increased investment in education and healthcare, employment creation, and policies that encourage productive investment and capital accumulation.

Digital Marketing and Household Purchase Intention for Solar Energy Systems: Case of Uasin Gishu County, Kenya

Hillary Chepkwony — 2026-10-07

The transition towards renewable energy increasingly depends on effective communication that can convert household awareness into purchase intention. This study examined the relationship between digital marketing and household purchase intention for solar energy systems in Uasin Gishu County, Kenya. Guided by the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Diffusion of Innovation Theory, the study adopted a quantitative, explanatory, cross-sectional survey design. Data were collected from 328 household heads drawn proportionately from six sub-counties using a structured seven-point Likert-type questionnaire. Exploratory factor analysis showed that digital marketing and purchase intention each formed a single component, with retained item loadings above .85. Hierarchical multiple regression was used to estimate the contribution of digital marketing while controlling for gender, age, income, household size, and education level. Digital marketing was positively and significantly associated with purchase intention (B = .235, β = .303, t = 5.744, p < .001). The model explained 16.0% of the variance in purchase intention (R² = .160; adjusted R² = .144). Age was positively associated with purchase intention (β = .137, p = .028), whereas education level showed a significant negative association (β = −.267, p < .001); gender, income, and household size were not significant. The findings indicate that digital communication channels are relevant to household solar-energy purchase intention in this setting, while also showing that substantial variation remains attributable to factors beyond digital marketing.

Prediction of Investment Decision in Indonesian Conglomerate Stock Using Machine Learning with K-Means and XGBoost

Nanda Ammaa Tsuroyya Rahmah — 2026-10-08

The growing number of investors in the Indonesian capital market highlights the need for analytical methods that support accurate investment decision-making. Conglomerate stocks have complex characteristics due to business diversification across sectors, making their price movements more difficult to predict than stocks within a single sector. This complexity creates challenges for investors in determining accurate investment decisions because stock movement patterns are heterogeneous and may be difficult to model effectively. This study aims to develop and evaluate a model for predicting Buy, Hold, and Sell investment decisions in Indonesian conglomerate stocks through the integration of K-Means and XGBoost algorithms. The data consist of weekly historical data from 11 conglomerate companies during the 2020–2025 period. The research stages include data preprocessing, formation of technical indicators, clustering using K-Means, and classification of investment decisions using XGBoost. The dataset was divided into 80% training data and 20% testing data. Investment decision labels were determined using a predefined ±5% weekly return threshold, where returns above 5% were classified as Buy, returns between −5% and 5% were classified as Hold, and returns below −5% were classified as Sell. The results show that the addition of clustering features improves the performance of the classification model. The XGBoost model without clustering achieved an accuracy of 73.41%, while the combination of XGBoost and K-Means with four clusters achieved the highest accuracy of 81.69%, with a macro F1-score of 0.70, compared with a 69.8% majority-class baseline. These findings indicate that integrating clustering and machine learning methods can improve the prediction of investment decisions in Indonesian conglomerate stocks. This study contributes by demonstrating that using K-Means as a feature engineering stage before XGBoost classification improves prediction accuracy compared with an XGBoost model without clustering, providing a more effective approach to support investment decision-making in conglomerate stocks.

Impact of Employer Branding on Talent Attraction and Employee Retention: Evidence from MSMEs in Jharkhand, India

Supriya Toppo — 2026-10-09

Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) play a vital role in Jharkhand's economic development and employment generation. However, attracting and retaining skilled employees remains a major challenge because of increasing competition in the labour market. This study examines the impact of employer branding on talent attraction and employee retention among MSMEs in Jharkhand. A quantitative research design was adopted, and primary data were collected from 96 respondents, including HR managers and MSME owners, through a structured questionnaire administered using Google Forms. Convenience sampling was employed, and the data were analysed using simple linear regression (SLR) in SPSS. The findings reveal a significant positive relationship between employer branding and the combined outcome of employee retention and talent attraction (r = 0.596, R² = 0.355, F = 51.747, p < 0.001). The results indicate that organisations with stronger employer-branding practices are more successful in attracting and retaining talented employees. However, the study also highlights limited awareness and implementation of formal employer-branding practices among many MSMEs in Jharkhand. The study concludes that employer branding should be recognised as a strategic human resource management tool for improving organisational attractiveness and workforce stability. It recommends that MSMEs strengthen their employee value proposition by fostering a positive work environment, offering competitive compensation and career-development opportunities, and improving communication about organisational culture and future growth. These initiatives may enhance talent attraction and employee retention, thereby contributing to the long-term sustainability and competitiveness of MSMEs in Jharkhand.

Career Visibility and Employee Retention: the Role of Internal Mobility and Development Opportunities in the Modern Workplace

Manisha Kumari — 2026-10-10

Employee retention has become increasingly important in the modern workplace, particularly as employees seek visible career pathways, internal mobility and opportunities for continuous development. This study examines the role of career visibility, internal mobility and development opportunities in supporting employee retention. The study is based on secondary data collected from recent international reports, institutional sources and relevant academic literature, with particular reference to the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025. Descriptive and comparative analyses are used to examine emerging workforce strategies related to career development, upskilling, talent progression and internal role transitions. The findings indicate that 85% of surveyed employers are prioritising workforce upskilling, while 62% identify talent progression and promotion as an important workforce strategy. Further, 51% expect to transition employees from declining roles to growing roles. The study also highlights that 39% of workers’ existing skills are expected to change or become outdated by 2030, indicating the growing importance of continuous learning and career development. The findings suggest that retention strategies are increasingly connected with employees’ opportunities to develop skills, move internally and understand potential career pathways. The study concludes that career visibility, internal mobility and development opportunities should be considered as interconnected elements of a broader employee retention strategy.