Forecasting of Organic Sorghum Production and Productivity in Chhattisgarh, India: The Box-jenkins Approach
Ram Prasad Chandra
*
Department of Economics, Government Madan Lal Shukla Postgraduate College Seepat, (Chhattisgarh), Pin – 495555, India.
Bhagawat Prasad Sahu
Mahesh Baghel ji keshkal Dandkaranya Government College, Keshkal, (Chhattisgarh), Pin – 494331, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Chhattisgarh has taken important steps towards promoting millets cultivation and improving the livelihood of farmers. To increase millets production in Chhattisgarh, the state government launched the Millet Mission in September 2021. This mission has been started with a view to make Chhattisgarh the ‘millet hub of India’. The study focused on forecasting sorghum crops in Chhattisgarh, India, using historical data on the cultivated area, production, and yield of sorghum crops. The time series data was collected from 2001 to 2023, and analysis of the study was carried out using path analysis and Box Jenkins ARIMA model; and among various 20 models the best and suitable ARIMA (2, 1, 2), (3, 1, 3), and (2, 1, 2) model was selected based on AIC, BIC, MAPE, RMSE, MAE. With the help of the selected appropriate model, the area, production and yield of sorghum cultivation in Chhattisgarh was forecasted for the year 2024 to 2030. But marvellous, stochastic and fluctuating trend was observed in sorghum production and yield over the forecast period.
Keywords: Econometric modeling, forecasting, SCAPY, AIC, BIC, AFC, MAPE